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  2. Battle for Allegiance: Governments, Terrorist Groups, and Constituencies in Conflict

Battle for Allegiance: Governments, Terrorist Groups, and Constituencies in Conflict

Seden Akcinaroglu and Efe Tokdemir 2020
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Domestic terrorist groups, like all violent nonstate actors, compete with governments for their monopoly on violence and their legitimacy in representing the citizenry. Battle for Allegiance shows violence is neither the only nor the most effective way in which nonstate actors and governments work to achieve their goals. As much as nonviolent strategies are a rarely considered piece of the puzzle, the role of the audience is another crucial piece often downplayed in the literature. Many studies emphasize the interactions between the government and the terrorist group at the expense of the constituency, but the constituency is the common cluster for both actors to gain legitimacy and to demand its allegiance. In fact, the competition between the two actors goes far beyond who is superior in terms of military force and tactics. The hardest battles are fought over the allegiance of the citizens.

Using a multimethod approach based on exclusive interviews and focus groups from Turkey and large N original data from around the world, Seden Akcinaroglu and Efe Tokdemir present the first systematic empirical analysis of the ways in which terrorist groups, the government, and the citizens relate to each other in a triadic web of action. They study the nonviolent actions of terrorist groups toward their constituencies, the nonviolent actions of governments toward terrorists, and the nonviolent actions of governments toward the terrorist group's constituencies. By investigating the causes, targets, and consequences of accommodative actions, this book sheds light on an important, but generally ignored, aspect of terrorism: interactive nonviolent strategies.

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ISBN(s)
  • 978-0-472-13199-0 (hardcover)
  • 978-0-472-12684-2 (ebook)
Subject
  • Political Science:Conflict Resolution & Peace Studies
  • Political Science:International Relations
  • Political Science:Governance
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  • Table of Contents

  • Resources

  • Stats

  • Cover
  • Title Page
  • Copyright Page
  • Dedication
  • Contents
  • Acknowledgments
  • One. Introduction
  • Part I. Nonviolent Strategies of Terrorist Groups
    • Two. The Choice of Terrorist Group Strategies
    • Three. The Impact of Violent vs. Nonviolent Strategies on the Achievements of Terrorist Groups
    • Four. Precedents and Consequences of Audience Relations
    • Five. Empirical Analysis of Audience Relations
  • Part II. Nonviolent Strategies of Governments in Counterterrorism
    • Six. Forcing the Government’s Hand
    • Seven. Empirical Analysis of Government Concessions to Constituency as a Counterterrorism Strategy
    • Eight. Constituency Reforms
    • Nine. Conclusion
  • Appendix
  • Notes
  • Bibliography
  • Index

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  • Chapter 11
  • Chapter 42
  • Chapter 59
  • Chapter 71
  • Chapter 83
  • Chapter 91
  • Appendix2
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  • Akcinaroglu, Seden
  • Tokdemir, Efe19
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Government–Terrorist Group–Constituency

Examination of Government – Terrorist Group – Constituency Relations

From Chapter 1

Fig. 1.1. Examination of Government–Terrorist Group–Constituency Relations

Trends in Audience Relations

Trends in Terrorists – Audience Relations in 1980 – 2011

From Chapter 4

Fig. 4.1. Trends in Terrorist-Audience Relations in 1980–2011

Mixed Strategy by Terrorist Groups

Mixed Strategy Adopted in Terrorists – Audience Relations

From Chapter 4

Fig. 4.2. Mixed Strategy Adopted in Terrorist–Audience Relations

Probability of Constructive Relations

Predicted Probabilities of Building Constructive Constituency Relations

From Chapter 5

Fig. 5.1. Predicted Probabilities of Building Constructive Constituency Relations

Probability of Destructive Relations

Predicted Probabilities of Building Destructive Constituency Relations

From Chapter 5

Fig. 5.2. Predicted Probabilities of Building Destructive Constituency Relations

Relations with the Non-Constituency

Predicted Probability of Building Non-Constituency Relations

From Chapter 5

Fig. 5.3. Predicted Probability of Building Non-Constituency Relations

Group Features and Constituency Relations

Substantive effects of Group Features on Audience Relations

From Chapter 5

Fig. 5.4. Substantive effects of Group Features on Audience Relations

Combined Impact of Audience Relations

Impact of Combined Indicators

From Chapter 5

Fig. 5.5. Impact of Combined Indicators

Achievements of Terrorist Groups

Terrorist Group Achievements (Yearly)

From Chapter 5

Fig. 5.6. Terrorist Group Achievements (Yearly)

Measuring Audience Relations

Terrorist Groups – Audience Relations Measurement

From Chapter 5

Fig. 5.7. Terrorist Group–Audience Relations Measurement

Impact of Audience Relations over Time—Analysis 1

Effect of Terrorist Group – Audience Relations on Achievement Over Time

From Chapter 5

Fig. 5.8. Effect of Terrorist Group–Audience Relations on Achievement over Time

Impact of Audience Relations over Time—Analysis 2

Effect of Audience Relations on Achievement Over Time (Comp. Risk)

From Chapter 5

Fig. 5.9. Effect of Audience Relations on Achievement over Time (Comp. Risk)

Probability of Government Concessions

Predicted Probabilities of Granting Concessions

From Chapter 7

Fig. 7.1. Predicted Probabilities of Granting Concessions

HDP Votes in Kurdish-Majority Cities, to be compared against AKP Votes shown in figure 8.1b

Vote Percentages of AKP and HDP in Kurdish-Dominant Cities, 1

From Chapter 8

Fig. 8.1a. Vote Percentages of HDP in Kurdish-Dominant Cities

AKP Votes in Kurdish-Majority Cities, to be compared against HDP Votes shown in figure 8.1a

Vote Percentages of AKP and HDP in Kurdish-Dominant Cities, 2

From Chapter 8

Fig. 8.1b. Vote Percentages of AKP in Kurdish-Dominant Cities

Impact of Concessions on the Fate of Terrorist Groups

Competing Risk Models of How Terroriest Groups End

From Chapter 8

Fig. 8.2. Competing Risk Models of How Terrorist Groups End

Beliefs about Improvements of Kurds’ Rights

Belief in Improvements in Rights of Kurdish Citizens in Turkey

From Chapter 9

Fig. 9.1. Belief in Improvements in Rights of Kurdish Citizens in Turkey

An appendix chart for chapter 5 and table A5.1

Multinomial Probit Results

From Appendix

Fig. A5.1. Multinomial Probit Results

An appendix chart for chapter 5

Multinomial Logistic Regression Findings

From Appendix

Fig. A5.2. Multinomial Logistic Regression Findings

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