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  3. Floundering Stability: US Foreign Policy in Egypt

Floundering Stability: US Foreign Policy in Egypt

Amir Magdy Kamel
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  • Overview

  • Contents

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The US commitment to stability—both domestically and abroad—has been a consistent feature in the way Washington, DC carries out international relations. This commitment is complimented by the increased overlap between the economic and political spheres in international affairs. Consequently, this US approach to foreign interaction is informed by an assumption that foreign policy tools can influence global stability for the better. In order to investigate this assumption, this book details the foundations of what Amir Magdy Kamel refers to as the US Stability Policy—how it evolved over time and how it was implemented in Egypt. He finds that domestic and global forces were left unaccounted for by the Stability Policy, ultimately leading to a failure to achieve the self-stated stability goals.

Kamel's analysis is informed through a unique mixed-method approach that sheds light on how and why this policy fared so poorly under Mubarak's Egypt. He develops and tests a unique and particular way of examining the Stability Policy and presents a framework for future work to replicate and build on in the quest to understand other state-on-state relationships and the effectiveness of other foreign economic policies in achieving stability goals. Floundering Stability reflects on what Kamel's findings mean for the relationship between the US and Egypt, as well as specific US foreign policy suggestions on how the same mistakes can be avoided in the future.

  • Cover
  • Title Page
  • Copyright Page
  • Dedication
  • Contents
  • List of Illustrations
  • Acronyms and Abbreviations
  • Acknowledgments
  • One. The US Idea of Stability
  • Two. An Economics and Stability Framework to Assess US-Egyptian Ties
  • Three. Tracing the Trajectory of the Stability Policy
  • Four. Mubarak’s First Decade and Sadat’s Continued Influence
  • Five. Twenty Years of Economic Liberalization and Political Constraint
  • Six. January 25 and an Overarching Quantitative Analysis
  • Concluding Thoughts
  • Appendix
  • Notes
  • Bibliography
  • Index
The open access version of this book is made available thanks in part to the support of libraries participating in Knowledge Unlatched
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Published: 2023
Publisher: University of Michigan Press
License: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International license
ISBN(s)
  • 978-0-472-05588-3 (paper)
  • 978-0-472-90320-7 (open access)
  • 978-0-472-07588-1 (hardcover)
Subject
  • Political Science:International Relations
  • Political Science:Public Policy
  • Middle and Near Eastern Studies

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Stacked quad scatter plot for the 1981 to 1990 time frame. This displays the correlation between US-­Egyptian trade and GDP, inflation, unemployment percentage, exchange rate volatility, and income distribution percentage in the top left quadrant. The top left quadrant also shows the strong negative correlation between US-­Egyptian trade and income distribution in Egypt with a downward sloping trend line. The top right quadrant displays the correlation between FDI and GDP, inflation, unemployment percentage, exchange rate volatility, and income distribution percentage. The bottom left quadrant displays the correlation between economic assistance and GDP, inflation, unemployment percentage, exchange rate volatility, and income distribution percentage. The bottom right quadrant displays the correlation between military assistance and GDP, inflation, unemployment percentage, exchange rate volatility, and income distribution percentage. There are no trend lines in the top right, bottom left, or bottom right quadrants. The key at the bottom of the stacked quad scatter plot chart holds the symbols adhering to each Egyptian economic stability measure and the trend lines for the chart.

Stability policy and Egypt's economic stability correlation (1981–1990)

From Chapter 4

Fig. 1. Correlation between the Stability Policy and Egypt’s Economic Stability (1981–1990)

Stacked quad scatter plot for the 1991 to 2010 time frame. This displays the correlation between US-­Egyptian trade and GDP, inflation, unemployment percentage, exchange rate volatility, and income distribution percentage in the top left quadrant. The top left quadrant also shows the positive correlation between US-­Egyptian trade and GDP and exchange rate volatility in Egypt with two upward sloping trend lines. The top right quadrant displays the correlation between FDI and GDP, inflation, unemployment percentage, exchange rate volatility, and income distribution percentage. This top right quadrant also shows the positive correlation between FDI and exchange rate volatility in Egypt with an upward sloping trend line. The bottom left quadrant displays the correlation between economic assistance and GDP, inflation, unemployment percentage, exchange rate volatility, and income distribution percentage. This bottom left quadrant also shows the negative correlation between economic assistance and exchange rate volatility in Egypt with a downward sloping trend line. The bottom right quadrant displays the correlation between military assistance and GDP, inflation, unemployment percentage, exchange rate volatility, and income distribution percentage. This bottom right quadrant also shows the positive correlation between military assistance and income distribution in Egypt with an upward sloping trend line. The key at the bottom of the stacked quad scatter plot chart holds the symbols adhering to each Egyptian economic stability measure and the trend lines for the chart.

Stability policy and Egypt's economic stability correlation (1991–2010)

From Chapter 5

Fig. 2. Correlation between the Stability Policy and Egypt’s Economic Stability (1991–2010)

Stacked quad scatter plot for the 1996 to 2010 time frame. This displays the correlation between US-­Egyptian trade and GDP, inflation, unemployment percentage, exchange rate volatility, and income distribution percentage in the top left quadrant. This top left quadrant also shows the positive correlation between US-­Egyptian trade and inflation and exchange rate volatility in Egypt with two upward sloping trend lines. The top right quadrant displays the correlation between FDI and GDP, inflation, unemployment percentage, exchange rate volatility, and income distribution percentage. This top right quadrant also shows the positive correlation between FDI and inflation and exchange rate volatility in Egypt with two upward sloping trend lines. The bottom left quadrant displays the correlation between economic assistance and GDP, inflation, unemployment percentage, exchange rate volatility, and income distribution percentage. This bottom left quadrant also shows the negative correlation between economic assistance and inflation in Egypt with a downward sloping trend line. The bottom right quadrant displays the correlation between military assistance and GDP, inflation, unemployment percentage, exchange rate volatility, and income distribution percentage. There are no trend lines in this bottom right quadrant. The key at the bottom of the stacked quad scatter plot chart holds the symbols adhering to each Egyptian economic stability measure and the trend lines for the chart.

Stability policy and Egypt's economic stability correlation (1996–2010)

From Chapter 5

Fig. 3. Correlation between the Stability Policy and Egypt’s Economic Stability (1996–2010)

Stacked quad scatter plot for the 1996 to 2010 time frame. This displays the correlation between US-­Egyptian trade and voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and the control of corruption in the top left quadrant. The top left quadrant also shows the negative correlation between US-­Egyptian trade and voice and accountability, government effectiveness, rule of law, and the control of corruption in Egypt with four downward sloping trend lines. The top right quadrant displays the correlation between FDI and voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and the control of corruption. This top right quadrant also shows the negative correlation between FDI and voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, and the control of corruption in Egypt with four downward sloping trend lines. The bottom left quadrant displays the correlation between economic assistance and voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and the control of corruption. This bottom left quadrant also shows the positive correlation between economic assistance and voice and accountability, government effectiveness, rule of law, and the control of corruption in Egypt with four upward sloping trend lines. The bottom right quadrant displays the correlation between military assistance and voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and the control of corruption. There are no trend lines in this bottom right quadrant. The key at the bottom of the stacked quad scatter plot chart holds the symbols adhering to each Egyptian political stability measure and the trend lines for the chart.

Stability policy and Egypt's political stability correlation (1996–2010)

From Chapter 5

Fig. 4. Correlation between the Stability Policy and Egypt’s Political Stability (1996–2010)

Stacked quad scatter plot for the 1981 to 2011 time frame. This displays the correlation between US-­Egyptian trade and GDP, inflation, unemployment percentage, exchange rate volatility, and income distribution percentage in the top left quadrant. The top left quadrant also shows the positive correlation between US-­Egyptian trade and exchange rate volatility and unemployment in Egypt with two upward sloping trend lines, as well as the negative correlation between US-­Egyptian trade and inflation with a downward sloping trend line. The top right quadrant displays the correlation between FDI and GDP, inflation, unemployment percentage, exchange rate volatility, and income distribution percentage. This top right quadrant also shows the positive correlation between FDI and exchange rate volatility in Egypt with an upward sloping trend line. The bottom left quadrant displays the correlation between economic assistance and GDP, inflation, unemployment percentage, exchange rate volatility, and income distribution percentage. This bottom left quadrant also shows the positive correlation between economic assistance and inflation in Egypt with an upward sloping trend line, as well as the negative correlation between economic assistance and exchange rate volatility and inflation in Egypt with two downward sloping trend lines. The bottom right quadrant displays the correlation between military assistance and GDP, inflation, unemployment percentage, exchange rate volatility, and income distribution percentage. There are no trend lines in this bottom right quadrant. The key at the bottom of the stacked quad scatter plot chart holds the symbols adhering to each Egyptian economic stability measure and the trend lines for the chart.

Stability policy and Egypt's economic stability correlation (1981–2011)

From Chapter 6

Fig. 5. Correlation between the Stability Policy and Egypt’s Economic Stability (1981–2011)

Stacked quad scatter plot for the 1996 to 2011 time frame. This displays the correlation between US-­Egyptian trade and GDP, inflation, unemployment percentage, exchange rate volatility, and income distribution percentage in the top left quadrant. The top left quadrant also shows the positive correlation between US-­Egyptian trade and inflation and exchange rate volatility in Egypt with two upward sloping trend lines. The top right quadrant displays the correlation between FDI and GDP, inflation, unemployment percentage, exchange rate volatility, and income distribution percentage. This top right quadrant also shows the positive correlation between FDI and inflation and exchange rate volatility in Egypt with two upward sloping trend lines. The bottom left quadrant displays the correlation between economic assistance and GDP, inflation, unemployment percentage, exchange rate volatility, and income distribution percentage. This bottom left quadrant also shows the negative correlation between economic assistance and inflation and exchange rate volatility in Egypt with two downward sloping trend lines. The bottom right quadrant displays the correlation between military assistance and GDP, inflation, unemployment percentage, exchange rate volatility, and income distribution percentage. There are no trend lines in this bottom right quadrant. The key at the bottom of the stacked quad scatter plot chart holds the symbols adhering to each Egyptian economic stability measure and the trend lines for the chart.

Stability policy and Egypt's economic stability correlation (1996–2011)

From Chapter 6

Fig. 6. Correlation between the Stability Policy and Egypt’s Economic Stability (1996–2011)

Stacked quad scatter plot for the 1996 to 2011 time frame. This displays the correlation between US-­Egyptian trade and voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and the control of corruption in the top left quadrant. The top left quadrant also shows the negative correlation between US-­Egyptian trade and voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, rule of law, and the control of corruption in Egypt with five downward sloping trend lines. The top right quadrant displays the correlation between FDI and voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and the control of corruption. This top right quadrant also shows the negative correlation between FDI and voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, rule of law, and the control of corruption in Egypt with five downward sloping trend lines. The bottom left quadrant displays the correlation between economic assistance and voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and the control of corruption. This bottom left quadrant also shows the positive correlation between economic assistance and voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, rule of law, and the control of corruption in Egypt with five upward sloping trend lines. The bottom right quadrant displays the correlation between military assistance and voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and the control of corruption. There are no trend lines in this bottom right quadrant. The key at the bottom of the stacked quad scatter plot chart holds the symbols adhering to each Egyptian political stability measure and the trend lines for the chart.

Stability policy and Egypt's political stability correlation (1996–2011)

From Chapter 6

Fig. 7. Correlation between the Stability Policy and Egypt’s Political Stability (1996–2011)

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