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  3. Fragile but Resilient? Turkish Electoral Dynamics, 2002-2015

Fragile but Resilient? Turkish Electoral Dynamics, 2002-2015

Ali Çarkoglu and Ersin Kalaycioglu
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  • Overview

  • Contents

Ersin Kalaycıoğlu and Ali Çarkoğlu, who conducted surveys comparable to the American National Election Survey for the 2002 and 2015 national elections in Turkey, chart the dynamics that brought the pro-Islamist conservative Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi-AKP) to power in 2002, and that continue to influence electoral politics. The authors trace the uneven course of democratization in Turkey, as revealed through elections, since the first competitive, multi-party elections in 1950. Since the market liberalization reforms of 1980, Turkey has been rapidly evolving from a closed, agricultural, comparatively underdeveloped polity into an open and industrial state primarily integrated with the global economy. Kalaycıoğlu and Çarkoğlu analyze different dimensions of five elections surveys in 2002-2015 period to show how the consequent socio-economic changes and traditional socio-cultural divisions have affected elections, political parties, and individual voters. The authors conclude that the historical-cultural divide between rural, peripheral, conservative groups and more urban, centrist, and modernized groups not only persists but shapes elections more than ever. This book not only provides an original comprehensive and critical evaluation of the Turkish electoral and party politics, it also offers a case study of voting behavior in a state undergoing both democratization and market liberalization in a rapidly changing and volatile international environment.
  • Cover
  • Title Page
  • Copyright Page
  • Dedication
  • Contents
  • Preface and Acknowledgments
  • Introduction: The State, the Party System, and the Citizens
  • Part 1. Historical Context and Theory
    • One. “Center-Periphery” versus the Kulturkampf?
    • Two. Social Cleavages and Economic Transformation in Turkey
    • Three. Center-Periphery within the Electorate
  • Part 2. Economy, Religion, Ethnicity, and Party Choice, 2002–2015
    • Four. The Turkish Electorate and the Economy
    • Five. Party Choice during the AKP Era, 2002–2015
    • Six. Ethnicity and Religion in Turkish Voting Behavior
    • Seven. Riding the Electoral Roller Coaster
  • Part 3. Conclusion
    • Eight. Sliding Out of Democratization
    • Nine. The End of Center-Periphery Political Confrontation
  • Appendix A: Turkish Election Studies, 2002–2015
  • Appendix B: Question Wording about Economic Evaluations
  • Notes
  • References
  • Index
Citable Link
Published: 2021
Publisher: University of Michigan Press
ISBN(s)
  • 978-0-472-12867-9 (ebook)
  • 978-0-472-13243-0 (hardcover)
Subject
  • Political Science:Governance
  • Political Science:Comparative Politics
  • Political Science:Political Behavior and Public Opinion

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A line graph that increases from 1927 to 2017 showing population share living in urban centers increasing constantly, reaching 24 to 94% of the population.

Population Shares in Province and District Centers, 1927-2017

From Chapter 1

Fig. 1.1. Population shares in province and district centers, 1927–2017 (%)

Share of gross domestic product at current prices by kind of economic activity, such as manufacturing, agriculture, mining services, and finance sectors.

GDP at current prices by kind of economic activity (% share), 1998-2017

From Chapter 1

Fig. 1.2. GDP at current prices by kind of economic activity (% share), 1998–2017

A scatter graph showing mean party positions with a confidence interval for all sample respondents along a 1 to 10 left-right self-placement from 2002 to 2015.

Mean Party Positions along the Conventional Left-Right Scale, 2002-2015

From Chapter 1

Fig. 1.3a. Mean party positions along the conventional left-right scale, 2002–2015

A scatter graph showing mean party constituency positions with a confidence interval for all sample respondents along a 1 to 10 left-right self-placement from 2002 to 2015.

Mean Party Constituency Positions along the Conventional Left-Right Scale, 2002-2015

From Chapter 1

Fig. 1.3b. Mean party constituency positions along the conventional left-right scale, 2002–2015

A scatter graph showing mean party constituency positions with a confidence interval along a 1 to 10 left-right self-placement from 2002 to 2015.

Mean positions of major party voters along the left-right dimension, 2002-2015

From Chapter 1

Fig. 1.4. Mean positions of major party voters along the left-right dimension, 2002–2015

A line graph showing mean positions of major party voters along the left-right dimension, showing polarization over 2002–2015.

Right-most minus left-most average party constituency positions, 2002-2015

From Chapter 1

Fig. 1.5. Rightmost minus leftmost average party constituency positions, 2002–2015

A line graph showing variation in electoral participation over all elections held between 1950 and 2015.

Participation in Turkish general, senate, local and presidential elections (%)

From Chapter 2

Fig. 2.1. Participation in Turkish general, senate, local, and presidential elections (%)

A line graph showing vote shares of parties along Center-Periphery cleavage for all elections between 1950 and 2015.

Vote for the centerist and peripheral parties and volatility, 1950-2015

From Chapter 2

Fig. 2.2. Vote for the centrist and peripheral parties and volatility, 1950–2015

A graph showing how parties emerged from one another over the years between 1950 and 2015.

Party Families across the Center-Periphery Cleavage

From Chapter 2

Fig. 2.3. Party Families across the Center-Periphery cleavage

A line graph showing how volatility of electoral support changed between 1950 to 2015.

Volatility, 1950-2015

From Chapter 2

Fig. 2.4. Volatility, 1950–2015

A line graph showing that there is strong support for students and women state employees being able to cover their heads if they want to.

Statement Evaluations; University students/women state employees should be able to cover their heads

From Chapter 2

Fig. 2.5. Evaluations of the statement that university students and women state employees should be able to cover their heads if they want to

A line graph showing responses suggesting that people believe there is free practice of the worship requirements of their religion and  little oppression of religious people in Turkey.

Can people freely worship? and Is there oppression of religious people in Turkey?

From Chapter 2

Fig. 2.6a. Can people freely practice the worship requirements of their religion in Turkey? And is there oppression of religious people in Turkey?

A line graph on oppression of fundamentalist Islamists and secular people; both groups are considered relatively free of oppression.

Are secular people free from the oppression of Islamists? Is there oppression on secular people?

From Chapter 2

Fig. 2.6b. Are secular people free from the oppression of fundamentalist Islamists? Is there oppression of secular people?

A line graph showing fluctuations in the effective number of parties in Turkey over the 1950–2015 period.

Effective Number of Parties, 1950-2015

From Chapter 2

Fig. 2.7. Effective Number of Parties, 1950–2015

A bar graph showing possession rates for different household goods over the 2002–2015 period.

Possession Rates, 2002-2015

From Chapter 4

Fig. 4.1. Possession Rates, 2002–2015

A line graph showing monthly household income distribution for 2002 to 2015 samples.

Monthly Household Income (TL), 2002-2015

From Chapter 4

Fig. 4.2. Monthly Household Income (TL), 2002–2015

A bar graph showing how most important problem declarations changed over the 2002–2015 samples.

What are the first and second most important problems Turkey faces? (% within total answers given)

From Chapter 4

Fig. 4.3. What, in your view, are the first and second most important problems Turkey faces? (% within total number of answers given)

A bar graph showing changes in declarations over 2002–2015 samples concerning which party could bring the best solution to the most important problem.

Which party can bring the best solution to the most important problem? AKP-2002 to 2015

From Chapter 4

Fig. 4.4. Which party can bring the best solution to the most important problem? AKP, 2002 to 2015.

A bar graph showing the credibility margin of the AKP over the CHP in resolving the most important problems facing Turkey.

Credibility margin of the AKP over CHP in resolving the most important problems facing Turkey

From Chapter 4

Fig. 4.5. The credibility margin of the AKP over the CHP in resolving the most important problems facing Turkey

A bar graph showing performance evaluations for the AKP government in different policy areas—the difference between successful and unsuccessful evaluations for the 2007–2015 period.

Performance Evaluations for AKP, 2007-2015 Difference between successful and unsuccessful evaluations

From Chapter 4

Fig. 4.6. Performance evaluations for the AKP government in different policy areas, 2007–2015 (difference between successful and unsuccessful evaluations).

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