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  1. Home
  2. Coalition of the unWilling and unAble: European Realignment and the Future of American Geopolitics

Coalition of the unWilling and unAble: European Realignment and the Future of American Geopolitics

John R. Deni 2021
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Why does the United States need European allies, and why is it getting more difficult for those allies to partner with Washington in standing up to China, pushing back against Russia, and pursuing other common interests around the world? This book addresses the economic, demographic, political, and military trends that are fundamentally upending the ability and willingness of European allies to work with Washington. Brexit and its impact on Britain's economy and its military, Germany's seemingly relentless economic and political rise, France's continuing economic malaise, Italy's aging population and its withdrawal from major overseas operations, and Poland's demographic decline and single-minded obsession with Russia will combine to make partnership with Washington nearly impossible. In short, the constellation of allies and partners the United States has relied on since 9/11 will look very different a decade from now. How should Washington respond? It doesn't hold all the cards, but this book offers an array of practical recommendations for American leaders. By leveraging these proposals, U.S. policy-makers can avoid the worst-case scenarios and make the most of limited opportunities.
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ISBN(s)
  • 978-0-472-12879-2 (ebook)
  • 978-0-472-13249-2 (hardcover)
Subject
  • Political Science
  • Political Science:Comparative Politics
  • Political Science:International Relations
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  • Table of Contents

  • Resources

  • Stats

  • Cover
  • Title Page
  • Copyright Page
  • Dedication
  • Contents
  • Preface and Acknowledgments
  • About the Author
  • Prologue
  • One. Introduction
  • Two. Brexit, Austerity, and the Demise of the Special Relationship
  • Three. Germany’s Hegemonic Role in Europe
  • Four. France and the Incomplete Revolution
  • Five. The Fall of Italy
  • Six. Poland as Europe’s Economic (and Military) Tiger?
  • Seven. The American Response
  • Eight. Conclusion
  • Footnotes
  • Bibliography
  • Index

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This figure depicts defense expenditures by the United Kingdom from the 2004-05 budget year through the 2017-18 budget year.

UK Defence Expenditures in billions of 2017/2018 GBP

From Chapter 2

Figure 1. Based on data in Noel Dempsey, “UK Defence Expenditure,” House of Commons Library briefing paper no. CBP 8175, November 8, 2018.

This figure depicts UK military personnel overall and active duty UK Army personnel from 1997 through 2019.

UK Active Duty Military Personnel

From Chapter 2

Figure 2. Based on data from the UK Ministry of Defence statistical compendia, compiled and plotted by author.

This figure depicts Dutch military personnel from 1998 through 2018.

Dutch Military Personnel

From Chapter 2

Figure 3. Data from The Military Balance, 2018.

This figure depicts gross domestic product for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the UK from 1960 through 2018.

GDP in constant 2010 USD trillions

From Chapter 3

Figure 4. Data from the World Bank.

This figure depicts national debt as a percent of GDP for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the UK from 2007 through 2018.

National debt as a percent of GDP

From Chapter 3

Figure 5. Data from Eurostat.

This figure depicts unemployment rates for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, the UK, and the EU from 2010 through 2019.

Unemployment rates, 2010-2019

From Chapter 3

Figure 6. Data from Eurostat.

This figure depicts projected population for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the UK through 2080.

Projected populations through 2080

From Chapter 3

Figure 7. Data from Eurostat.

This figure depicts fertility rates for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, the UK, and the EU from 2005 through 2018.

Fertility rates in Europe, 2005-2018

From Chapter 3

Figure 8. Data from Eurostat.

This figure depicts real annual GDP growth in Italy from 2011 through 2019.

Real GDP annual growth in Italy, 2011-2019

From Chapter 5

Figure 9. Data from Eurostat.

This figure depicts the annual unemployment rate in Italy from 2010 through 2018.

Unemployment rate in Italy, 2010-2018

From Chapter 5

Figure 10. Data from Eurostat.

This figure depicts Italian military spending in constant 2017 millions of U.S. dollars, from 2002 through 2018.

Italian military spending in constant 2017 millions of USD, 2002-2018

From Chapter 5

Figure 11. Data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

This figure depicts real annual GDP growth in Poland from 2011 through 2019.

Real GDP annual growth in Poland, 2011-2019

From Chapter 6

Figure 12. Data from Eurostat.

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