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Fragile but Resilient? Turkish Electoral Dynamics, 2002-2015
Ali Çarkoglu and Ersin Kalaycioglu
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Ersin Kalaycıoğlu and Ali Çarkoğlu, who conducted surveys comparable to the American National Election Survey for the 2002 and 2015 national elections in Turkey, chart the dynamics that brought the pro-Islamist conservative Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi-AKP) to power in 2002, and that continue to influence electoral politics. The authors trace the uneven course of democratization in Turkey, as revealed through elections, since the first competitive, multi-party elections in 1950. Since the market liberalization reforms of 1980, Turkey has been rapidly evolving from a closed, agricultural, comparatively underdeveloped polity into an open and industrial state primarily integrated with the global economy. Kalaycıoğlu and Çarkoğlu analyze different dimensions of five elections surveys in 2002-2015 period to show how the consequent socio-economic changes and traditional socio-cultural divisions have affected elections, political parties, and individual voters. The authors conclude that the historical-cultural divide between rural, peripheral, conservative groups and more urban, centrist, and modernized groups not only persists but shapes elections more than ever. This book not only provides an original comprehensive and critical evaluation of the Turkish electoral and party politics, it also offers a case study of voting behavior in a state undergoing both democratization and market liberalization in a rapidly changing and volatile international environment.
Cover
Title Page
Copyright Page
Dedication
Contents
Preface and Acknowledgments
Introduction: The State, the Party System, and the Citizens
Part 1. Historical Context and Theory
One. “Center-Periphery” versus the Kulturkampf?
Two. Social Cleavages and Economic Transformation in Turkey
Three. Center-Periphery within the Electorate
Part 2. Economy, Religion, Ethnicity, and Party Choice, 2002–2015
Four. The Turkish Electorate and the Economy
Five. Party Choice during the AKP Era, 2002–2015
Six. Ethnicity and Religion in Turkish Voting Behavior
Seven. Riding the Electoral Roller Coaster
Part 3. Conclusion
Eight. Sliding Out of Democratization
Nine. The End of Center-Periphery Political Confrontation
Appendix A: Turkish Election Studies, 2002–2015
Appendix B: Question Wording about Economic Evaluations
Fig. 4.6. Performance evaluations for the AKP government in different policy areas, 2007–2015 (difference between successful and unsuccessful evaluations).