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  1. Home
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  3. A Study of Crisis

A Study of Crisis

Michael Brecher and Jonathan Wilkenfeld
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  • Overview

  • Contents

As the twentieth century draws to a close, it is time to look back on an epoch of widespread turmoil, including two world wars, the end of the colonial era in world history, and a large number of international crises and conflicts. This book is designed to shed light on the causes and consequences of military-security crises since the end of World War I, in every region, across diverse economic and political regimes, and cultures. The primary aim of this volume is to uncover patterns of crises, conflicts and wars and thereby to contribute to the advancement of international peace and world order.

The culmination of more than twenty years of research by Michael Brecher and Jonathan Wilkenfeld, the book analyzes crucial themes about crisis, conflict, and war and presents systematic knowledge about more than 400 crises, thirty-one protracted conflicts and almost 900 state participants. The authors explore many aspects of conflict, including the ethnic dimension, the effect of different kinds of political regimes--notably the question whether democracies are more peaceful than authoritarian regimes, and the role of violence in crisis management. They employ both case studies and aggregate data analysis in a Unified Model of Crisis to focus on two levels of analysis--hostile interactions among states, and the behavior of decision-makers who must cope with the challenge posed by a threat to values, time pressure, and the increased likelihood that military hostilities will engulf them.

This book will appeal to scholars in history, political science, sociology, and economics as well as policy makers interested in the causes and effects of crises in international relations. The rich data sets will serve researchers for years to come as they probe additional aspects of crisis, conflict and war in international relations.

Michael Brecher is R. B. Angus Professor of Political Science, McGill University. Jonathan Wilkenfeld is Professor and Chair of the Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland. They are the coauthors of Crises in the Twentieth Century: A Handbook of International Crisis, among other books and articles.
  • Cover
  • Half Title
  • Title
  • Copyright
  • Dedication
  • Contents
  • List of Figures
  • List of Tables
  • Preface to the E-book
  • Preface to the Paperback and CD-ROM Edition
  • Preface and Acknowledgments to the First Edition
  • Part I. Framework
    • Prologue
    • Concepts
      • Foreign Policy Crisis
      • International Crisis
      • Crisis, Protracted Conflict, War
      • Actor-System Linkages
    • Phases and Periods: The Unified Model
    • Research Design
    • Contextual Variables
    • Notes to Part I
  • Part II. Methodology
    • Introduction
    • ICB Data Collection Procedures
      • Cases
      • Variables
      • Indices
      • Coders
      • Sources
    • Summary
    • Notes to Part II
  • Part III. The ICB Encyclopedia of Twentieth Century International Crises
    • Introduction to the CD-ROM
      • Crisis Summaries and Protracted Conflicts
      • Crisis Overview Forms and Related Tables
      • ICB Data Sets and Codebooks
      • List of Crises in the Twentieth Century
      • List of Protracted Conflicts
  • Part IV. Analysis
    • Introduction
    • Polarity
      • Introduction
      • Definitional Issues: Polarity and Stability
      • Polarity-Stability Model
      • Crisis Characteristics and the International System
      • Major Power Activity in Crises
      • Crisis Outcomes and International Systems
      • Summary
    • Geography
      • Geographic Location of Crises
      • Adversarial Proximity
      • Proximity of Crisis to the Actor
      • Summary
    • Ethnicity
      • Definitions
      • Ethnicity-Crisis Model
      • Findings
      • Centrality of Ethnicity in International Crisis
      • Summary
    • Democracy
      • Introduction
      • Implications of the Normative Model for International Crises
      • Propositions about Democracies and International Crisis
      • Democracies and Crisis Violence
      • Democracy and Global Organization Involvement and Effectiveness
      • Summary
    • Protracted Conflict
      • Protracted Conflict–Crisis Model
      • Operationalization
      • Findings
      • Summary and Profiles
    • Violence
      • Trigger-Response Mechanism
      • Stress
      • Sociopolitical Conditions
      • Power Relations among Adversaries
      • Specification of Variables
      • Findings
      • Summary
    • Third-Party Intervention
      • Global Organizations in International Crises
      • Crisis Attributes and Global Organization Involvement
      • Findings
      • Global Organization Involvement and Crisis Outcome
      • Findings
      • Summary: Global Organizations and International Crises
      • Major Powers as Intermediaries in International Crises
      • Summary: Major Powers as Third Parties in International Crises
    • Conclusions
    • Notes to Part IV
  • Bibliography
    • References for Preface and Parts I, II, and IV
    • Sources for Case Summaries (Part III and the CD-ROM)
      • General Sources
      • Primary Sources
      • Secondary Sources
  • Index
Citable Link
Published: 1997
Publisher: University of Michigan Press
License: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International license
ISBN(s)
  • 978-0-472-10806-0 (hardcover)
  • 978-0-472-90312-2 (open access)
  • 978-0-472-08707-5 (paper plus cd rom)
Subject
  • Digital Projects
  • Economics:International Economics
  • Latin American Studies
  • Political Science:International Relations

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Figure I.1: Depicts the relationships among crisis, protracted conflict, and war

Conflict, Crisis, War

From Chapter 1

Figure I.1.Conflict, Crisis, War

Figure I.2: Crisis definition for actor (challenge to values, finite time for response, violence); and system (challenge structure of system, increase disruptive interaction)

Unit- and System-Level Crisis Components

From Chapter 1

Figure I.2.Unit- and System-Level Crisis Components

Figure I.3: At actor level, crises move from trigger to termination, escalation/de-escalation. At system level, crises move from breakpoint/endpoint and distortion/accommodation.

Static and Dynamic Concepts of Crisis

From Chapter 1

Figure I.3.Static and Dynamic Concepts of Crisis

Figure I.4: Crisis phases – onset (Incipient distortion), escalation (peak distortion), de-escalation (accommodation), impact (non-crisis interaction).

Toward a Unified Model of Crisis: Phases and Periods

From Chapter 1

Figure I.4.Toward a Unified Model of Crisis: Phases and Periods

Figure I.5: Macro level dimensions of crisis (8 clusters from breakpoint to impact), and context of crisis.

Conceptual Map: Macro Level

From Chapter 1

Figure I.5.Conceptual Map: Macro Level

Figure I.6: Micro level dimensions of crisis (5 clusters from trigger to outcome), and context including system attributes and actor attributes.

Conceptual Map: Micro Level

From Chapter 1

Figure I.6.Conceptual Map: Micro Level

Figure II.1: Number of crises per year, 1918-1994. Peaks in 1981 (14) and 1987 (12), then gradual decline to 3 in 1993 and 2 in 1994.

Distribution of Crises, 1918-94

From Chapter 2

Figure II.1.Distribution of Crises, 1918–94 (N = 412)

Figure IV.1: Pie chart distribution of international crises by polarity. Multipolarity (18%), WWII (8%), bipolarity (22%), polycentrism (47%), and unipolarity (5%).

Twentieth-Century International Crises

From Chapter 4

Figure IV.1.Twentieth-Century International Crises

Figure IV.2: Polarity and stability. Polycentrism = High instability; multipolarity = medium instability; bipolarity = low instability.

Polarity-Stability Model

From Chapter 4

Figure IV.2.Polarity-Stability Model

Figure IV.3: Number of crises per year, 1918-1994. Peaks in 1981 (14) and 1987 (12, then gradual decline to 3 in 1993 and 2 in 1994.

International Crises, 1918-94

From Chapter 4

Figure IV.3.International Crises, 1918–94 (N = 412)

Figure IV.4: Geographic location of crises. Americas (14%), Africa (27%), Europe (21%), Middle East (20%), Asia (18%).

Geographic Location of Twentieth-Century International Crises

From Chapter 4

Figure IV.4.Geographic Location of Twentieth-Century International Crises

Figure IV.5: Involvement of major powers by geographic region. Major powers highest in all regions from 1918-1939. Post 1945, US and USSR/Russia nearly equal in Europe, with US involvement highest in all other regions.

Percent Involvement by Major Powers

From Chapter 4

Figure IV.5.Percent Involvement by Major Powers

Figure IV.6: Adversarial proximity. Moving from contiguous to near neighbor to distant, likelihood of violence, non- agreement and protracted conflicts increases.

Adversarial Proximity-Crisis Model

From Chapter 4

Figure IV.6.Adversarial Proximity–Crisis Model

Figure IV.7: Distribution of cases by proximity of adversaries. Contiguous=73%, near-neighbor=12%, distant=15%.

Adversarial Proximity

From Chapter 4

Figure IV.7.Adversarial Proximity (N = 336)

Figure IV.8: Proximity of actor to crisis. Range from home territory, region, same continent, and remote. The closer the crisis, the more likely that there will be violence, and will result in protracted conflict.

Proximity of Crisis to Actor Model

From Chapter 4

Figure IV.8.Proximity of Crisis to Actor Model

Figure IV.9: Proximity and region. Home territory=59%, region=21%, same continent=9%, remote =11%.

Geographic Proximity of Crises to Actors, Foreign Policy Crises

From Chapter 4

Figure IV.9.Geographic Proximity of Crises to Actors, Foreign Policy Crises (N = 658)

Figure IV.10: The ethnicity-crisis model looks at ethnic versus non-ethnic conflict. If ethnic, whether it is part of a protracted conflict or not, what its geographic location is, and likelihood of several variables including violence and type of outcome.

Ethnicity-Crisis Model

From Chapter 4

Figure IV.10.Ethnicity-Crisis Model

Figure IV.11: The figure looks at pairings of democracies and other democracies, versus mixed pairs, and finally pairings of non-democracies. Reports probabilities of closeness to democratic characteristics.

DEM and Variations of a Three-Actor Crisis

From Chapter 4

Figure IV.11.DEM and Variations of a Three-Actor Crisis

Figure IV.12: Reports proportion of crises along a democratic-non-democratic scale. .0-.25=40%, .25-.50=4%, .50-.75=43%, .75-1.00=13%.

Distribution of Crises on DEM by Quartile

From Chapter 4

Figure IV.12.Distribution of Crises on DEM by Quartile

Figure IV.13: Model of crises as part of protracted conflict. PC crises have high likelihood of violence in trigger, high value threat, violence in crisis management, ambiguous outcomes and termination in non-agreement.

Protracted Conflict-Crisis Model

From Chapter 4

Figure IV.13.Protracted Conflict–Crisis Model

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